Update 2: In what appears to be the third round of revisions to his increasingly disjointed thread of trade-deal related tweets, Trump has now retweeted the deleted tweet saying talks were proceeding in a “congenial” manner and that there was no need to rush.
Talks with China continue in a very congenial manner – there is absolutely no need to rush – as Tariffs are NOW being paid to the United States by China of 25% on 250 Billion Dollars worth of goods & products. These massive payments go directly to the Treasury of the U.S….
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 10, 2019
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He also added a tweet taking a shot at Obama and “Sleepy Joe” Biden, while warning China not to try and renegotiate a nearly finalized deal at the last minute.
Tariffs will make our Country MUCH STRONGER, not weaker. Just sit back and watch! In the meantime, China should not renegotiate deals with the U.S. at the last minute. This is not the Obama Administration, or the Administration of Sleepy Joe, who let China get away with “murder!”
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 10, 2019
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* * *
Update: Trump has retweeted his original rant, apparently with the aim of correcting an error where he said the amount of goods subjected to tariff hikes last night was $250 billion, not $200 billion. We have updated some of these tweets below.
He has also deleted the first tweet in his initial thread, where he said talks continued in “a very congenial manner” and that there was “no need to rush.”
* * *
Clearly anxious about the impact the trade war is having on America’s farmers, President Trump in a flurry of tweets Friday morning assured investors that although trade talks continue “in a very congenial manner,” there is “absolutely no need to rush” because the new tariffs will bring in “$100 billion” to the Treasury, which can in turn be spent buying agricultural goods from US farmers.
Trump added that “the process has already begun to place additional Tariffs at 25% on the remaining 325 Billion Dollars” – in keeping with the tariff threats from Sunday that set this whole thing in motion (notably, Trump tweeted that tariffs had been raised on $250 billion of goods, when the accurate figure is $200 billion) [Note: This tweet has since been deleted].
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These goods, in turn, would be shipped to struggling countries in the form of humanitarian assistance, throwing a lifeline to American farmers while leaving $85 billion in tariff revenues for infrastructure.
….The process has begun to place additional Tariffs at 25% on the remaining 325 Billion Dollars. The U.S. only sells China approximately 100 Billion Dollars of goods & products, a very big imbalance. With the over 100 Billion Dollars in Tariffs that we take in, we will buy…..
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 10, 2019
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….agricultural products from our Great Farmers, in larger amounts than China ever did, and ship it to poor & starving countries in the form of humanitarian assistance. In the meantime we will continue to negotiate with China in the hopes that they do not again try to redo deal!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 10, 2019
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Tariffs will bring in FAR MORE wealth to our country than even a phenomenal deal of the traditional kind. Also, much easier & quicker to do. Our Farmers will do better, faster, and starving nations can now be helped. Waivers on some products will be granted, or go to new source!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 10, 2019
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….If we bought 15 Billion Dollars of Agriculture from our Farmers, far more than China buys now, we would have more than 85 Billion Dollars left over for new Infrastructure, Healthcare, or anything else. China would greatly slow down, and we would automatically speed up!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 10, 2019
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We have lost 500 Billion Dollars a year, for many years, on Crazy Trade with China. NO MORE!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 10, 2019
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“Our farmers will do better, faster, and starving nations can now be helped.” The US will buy more products “than China ever did,” Trump insisted.
“Tariffs will bring in FAR MORE wealth to our country than even a phenomenal deal of the traditional kind.”
We know that sounds complicated, and the plan sketched out in the five-tweet thread is probably unrealistic. But the biggest takeaway is this: Trump is already preparing his political cover for a no-deal scenario. Furthermore, Trump’s comments about the next round of tariff escalation risks spooking the market, though he hedged by saying talks remain congenial.
Stock futures ticked lower in the aftermath of the tweets, demonstrating just how fragile sentiment has become, even though – as Goldman pointed out – the US has a two-week window before the first batches of Chinese goods subject to the new tariff rates reach American shores.
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