Yield Curve Flashing Biggest Recession Signal Yet: Shilling Thinks It Started!

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Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Treasury yields have plunged at the mid to long end of the yield curve producing biggest recession warning yet.

On Friday, US Treasury yields plunged at the mid to long end of the curve providing the most inversions since the start of the Great Recession. This is the biggest recession warning since 2007.

Yield Curve

Major portions of the yield curve are inverted for nearly 15 years.

Let’s take a look at what others are saying.

Core Capital Goods

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That is something I pointed out as well in Dismal Durable Goods Report: Inventories Up, Shipments and New Orders Down.

Core capital goods are a measure of future business expansion. The March revision to the downside was massive, from +1.3% to +0.3%. April was -0.9%. Economists expected +0.1%. Oops.

Strong Economy Not

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GDP Assessment From Markit

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1.2% and falling

What’s the ECB Gonna Do?

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Spotlight Trade War

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What About Systemic Risks?

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Japanese Exports

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South Korea Exports

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Major Appliance Shipments

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Recession Already Started?!

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