Chicago PMI Plunges Into Contraction

On the heels of dismal weakness in all regional Fed outlook surveys, Chicago PMI just collapsed from 54.2 to 49.7 (drastically missing the 53.5 expectation) and back into contraction for the first time since Dec 2015.

 

This was well below the lowest estimate of 51.0 from 25 economist surveyed.

  • Business barometer fell and the direction reversed, signaling contraction

  • Prices paid rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion

  • New orders fell and the direction reversed, signaling contraction

  • Employment rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion

  • Inventories rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion

  • Supplier deliveries rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion

  • Production rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion

  • Order backlogs fell at a faster pace, signaling contraction

This drags the ‘soft’ survey data “hope” down to its weakest since March 2016…

Nothing that a 50bps rate cut in July can’t fix eh?


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