Philly Fed Survey Soars To 12-Month Highs, Jumps Most In A Decade

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Regional Fed surveys were almost uniformly weak in June


The Philly Fed survey smashed expectations (+5.0), rising to 12-month highs at 21.8 from 0.3 in June.

This is the biggest MoM jump since June 2009!

Under the hood, everything exploded higher…

  • July prices paid rose to 16.1 vs 12.9

  • New orders rose to 18.9 vs 8.3

  • Employment rose to 30.0 vs 15.4

  • Shipments rose to 24.9 vs 16.6

  • Delivery time fell to 15.0 vs 15.6

  • Inventories rose to 8.1 vs 2.4

  • Prices received rose to 9.5 vs 0.6

  • Unfilled orders fell to 3.7 vs 10.2

  • Average workweek rose to 23.0 vs 7.3

  • Six-month outlook rose to 38.0 vs 21.4

  • Six-month outlook for capex rose to 36.9 vs 28.0

In fact, employment is at a record high for the survey!!

Do these ‘soft’ surveys have any value whatsoever when they can swing from 3 year lows to 1 year highs over the space of one month?



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