The European elections were a sobering experience for the Tories. Their support fell to only 10 per cent of the vote and I already know of several large-scale Tory donors who switched to the Brexit Party overnight. Arguably, the Conservatives’ future is already in doubt. Suddenly, it is ‘do-or-die’ not just for Brexit, but for the Conservative Party as well.
Mr Johnson should realize that he is going to have to risk his longed-for position as PM to ensure Brexit is enacted properly. There is no prospect of a meaningful Brexit thanks to the views of most sitting MPs. And any attempt to prorogue Parliament will lead to the PM being brought down by his own side. The inescapable truth, therefore, is that he must hold an Autumn general election. That is his only way out. Doing so will take enormous courage. Inevitably, it will trigger a split in the Conservative Party. But the country is crying out for leadership and a resolution to the Brexit crisis.
Even on Brexit, he was very late to the cause. He will have a lot of convincing to do to persuade us that an early election will lead to a clean-break Brexit on 31 October.
If he is able to convince us, then together we would electorally smash the Labour Party, he would assume a big working majority, and he would go down as one of the great leaders in British history. All this is possible, but is Boris Johnson brave enough?
Johnson Should Accept
Johnson should accept this offer, just not quite yet. I propose mid-September.
Johnson should delay long enough there is no mathematical chance an election can stop Brexit.
By Common’s math, assuming an election is on a Thursday, an election is already too late to stop Brexit. But there is no requirement for a Thursday election.
My calculation says BJ can seek an election any time after September 10 secure that it cannot be held in time to prevent Brexit on October 31.
The Tories have had a bounce following Johnson’s election. And his message is “Deliver Brexit – Do or Die.
What’s Jeremy Corbyn going to offer? Another referendum!
That’s supposed to carry the day?
Meet Jo Swinson
She is the new head of the Liberal Democrats.
The Guardian reports Jo Swinson rules out Lib Dem pact with Labour under Jeremy Corbyn
If that holds, a coalition between Farage and the Tories would indeed smash Labour and the Liberal Democrats to boot.
Of course, we only know what she says she would do not what she would really do.
But the Liberal Democrat platform is to return to the EU. Corbyn wants a “People’s Choice”.
67 Labour Party Members Attack Corbyn’s Anti-Jewish Leadership in Newspaper Ad
Also recall 67 Labour Party Members Attack Corbyn’s Anti-Jewish Leadership in Newspaper Ad.
Finally, at least 25% of Labour membership voted for Brexit. It was on those grounds that Corby said he would honor the referendum.
A significant number of Tories wanted to remain, but Labour has the far bigger problem.
Early Elections Coming
I commented on July 20: Early Elections Coming, But How Early?
The pieces are now falling together nicely. The EU is About to Face 2 Realities: Johnson Will Deliver Brexit, Eurozone in Recession
Johnson just needs a little more time to meet with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron.
He can easily kill a week or two, come back and say they won’t listen, and opt for an election right after he delivers Brexit.
Will a majority of UK really vote for Corbyn or any other Labour leader if the platform is another People’s Choice referendum?
I think not.
Reprinted with permission from Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis.
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