Global Growth Scare Sparks Safe-Haven Surge, Slam Stocks

“Everything was awesome” overnight – China was closed, futures drifted higher, hope remained, impeachment headlines had calmed down… and then the growth scare started in Asia with South Korean CPI deflated for the first time ever, then European PMIs plunged… But markets held in (hey, The Fed’s got our bank, right) as it’s just a fleshwound…

[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKhEw7nD9C4]

…and then US Manufacturing ISM survey missed by a mile, dropping to its biggest contraction since 2009 – and all hell broke loose.

Instantly, stocks and the dollar were dumped and safe haven flows sent gold higher and bond yields lower…

Source: Bloomberg

The moves today were quite shocking: Dow futures dropped 500 points from their overnight highs, 30Y Yields crashed 13bps from overnight highs, the dollar tumbled 0.6% intraday, and gold spiked $30. Additionally, rate-cut odds for October jumped higher to 60%…

Source: Bloomberg

Chinese markets were closed last night (and all week) due to Golden Week celebrations but China ADRs in the US traded down

Source: Bloomberg

European stocks tumbled today…

Source: Bloomberg

US stocks were all red today led by Trannies and Small Caps…

Futures show the stable drift higher overnight that was abruptly ended by the ISM Manufacturing data…

S&P filled the gap from 9/5

Led by selling in cyclicals…

Source: Bloomberg

And momentum was very bid today…

Source: Bloomberg

VIX surged back above 18 once again…

All the major US indices tested or broke key technical levels today… (NOTE – The Dow was strongest until the last minute and it tumbled back to the 50DMA)

Treasury yields tumbled intraday, all now lower on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

30Y Yields collapsed 13bps from overnight highs…

Source: Bloomberg

JGBs spooked global bond yields overnight, but that was entirely erased by Treasuries…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar surged overnight to fresh highs, then cratered after the ISM data…

Source: Bloomberg

Cable whipped around on backstop headlines today (and its 50DMA)

Source: Bloomberg

With China closed, offshore yuan continued to drift lower…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos managed to hold on to gains since last week’s carnage…

Source: Bloomberg

Commodities were mixed with PMs bid today as crude tumbled…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI broke below the pre-Saudi attack levels, retested them, then plunged to almost a $52 handle…

Gold rebounded from yesterday’s losses but remains red on the week…

 

Finally, lower earnings estimates for the largest U.S. companies may only be a matter of time, according to Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist.

Source: Bloomberg

And the September “use it or lose it” surge in macro data… is over

Source: Bloomberg