COVID deaths have peaked and begun to decline. CDC report
(Image by Josh Mitteldorf) Details DMCA
(data from http://OurWorldInData.org/coronavirus )
New cases of disease are the leading trend indicator, but infection counts are hard to come by, because the great majority of people with mild cases are not being counted, and testing is limited in both accuracy and availability. So we make a mental note that deaths (plotted above) are 2 to 3 weeks behind the infection rate. New infections probably peaked 3 weeks ago.
Contributions to the decline:
- Warmer weather is arriving
- Doctors are learning how to treat COVID from others’ experience
- Saturation / herd immunity — most people have already been exposed and have built up immunity
- The lockdown and social distancing strategies are working
States and communities have begun to double down on their lockdown rules, crediting the decline to success of isolation strategies. Others have noted that these strategies are costly, not just in dollars but in emotional and physical health, in human suffering, and ultimately in lives lost. So, it’s important to establish which of these factors have contributed to success. We can do this by comparing different regions of the world, different climates, different strategies.
In Sweden, where there is no lockdown and cold weather, the cumulative death rate per million population is 89.8
In Denmark, where is lockdown and cold weather, the cumulative death rate per million population is 50.9
In Finland, where there is lockdown and cold weather, the cumulative death rate per million population is 10.7
In Russia, where there is no lockdown and cold weather, the cumulative death rate per million population is 1.0
In USA, where there is lockdown and medium cold weather, the cumulative death rate per million population is 67.5
In Japan, where there has been until recently no lockdown and medium cold weather, the cumulative death rate per million population is 0.81
In Brazil, where there is no lockdown and medium warm weather, the cumulative death rate per million population is 5.9 (but winter is just beginning)
In Peru, where there is lockdown and warm weather, the cumulative death rate per million population is 6.0
In Mexico, where there is no lockdown and warm weather, the cumulative death rate per million population is 2.35
(source of country statistics: Wikipedia via Google)
For context: in recent years, annual US death rates from flu have ranged from a low of 34 to a high of 175, on this same scale of deaths per million population. (numbers from CDC)
In these statistics by country, it is easy to see a relationship to weather. Cold countries (except Russia) are doing much worse than warm countries. We might also perceive that lockdown is a little better than no lockdown in the cold countries, unless we consider Japan. And again, Russia is an outlier with cold weather, no lockdown, and ultra-low COVID mortality.
Many US localities are in the process of further tightening restrictions on transportation, retail shops, and places of employment. Gatherings for religion and culture and socializing have already shut down. Our “leaders” are still talking about 12 to 18 months before we can return to normal activity. Anthony Fauci says we may never return to normal.
I leave it to you whether the evidence justifies long-term lockdown.
The post Coronavirus Deaths Peaked 3 Weeks Ago appeared first on LewRockwell.
The daily news and opinion site LewRockwell.com was founded in 1999 by anarcho-capitalists Lew Rockwell and Burt Blumert to help carry on the anti-war, anti-state, pro-market work of Murray N. Rothbard. Visit https://www.lewrockwell.com