EU’s Barnier Saves Brexit Talks With Tweet Affirming Brussels Ready To “Escalate”

Further validating Boris Johnson’s aggressive approach to negotiating with Brussels, it appeared over the weekend that HMGturning its aggressive rhetoric up to ’11’ on Friday (following the conclusion of an unsuccessful EuCo summit) might have succeeded in pushing the EU to soften its negotiating position.

The message was clear: If Brussels isn’t prepared to “escalate” talks – that is, offer concessions on state subsidies and fisheries access, the two biggest obstacles to a comprehensive “Canada-style” deal – then chief negotiator Michel Barnier shouldn’t even bother showing up.

Brussels reiterated that it was committed to sending Barnier and his team to London for another round of talks this week, signaling (according to some analysts) that concessions might be within reach as Wall Street analysts revise down the chances of a tumultuous ‘no deal’ outcome on New Year’s Day.

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But since nothing can ever happen smoothly when it comes to late-stage Brexit negotiations, another dustup occurred Monday afternoon, leading to a flurry of conflicting Brexit-related headlines to bombard cable-trading algos, before the issue was apparently settled once again.

Talks teetered on the brink of collapse Monday morning following a call between Barnier and Lord David Frost, BoJo’s top negotiator, where Lord Frost was reportedly left unsatisfied after trying to suss out whether the EU team was truly ready to “intensify” talks.

That led to Michael Gove, one of Johnson’s senior cabinet officials, telling the Commons that negotiations had “effectively ended” since the EU had refused to confirm that it would be willing to “intensify” negotiations by getting into the nitty-gritty of “legal texts”. Gove added that “no deal” is not the government’s preferred outcome, but that it was prepared for an “Australia-style” trade relationship, a byword for ‘no deal’ and falling back on WTO terms. 

But the senior minister was soon forced to eat those words. In a tweet that was clearly timed for maximum impact, the EU’s Barnier tweeted just after Gove delivered his statement that Brussels was in fact ready to “escalate” talks “on all subjects, and based on all legal texts”.

🇪🇺🇬🇧 I just spoke to @DavidGHFrost.

As stated by President @vonderleyen on Friday, I confirmed that the EU remains available to intensify talks in London this week, on all subjects, and based on legal texts.

We now wait for the UK’s reaction.

— Michel Barnier (@MichelBarnier) October 19, 2020

Earlier, BoJo himself added to the pessimistic mood by claiming that the EU had “abandoned the idea of a free trade deal” following last week’s summit.

But the explicitness of Barnier’s tweet shocked some MPs, and Gove affirmed that if Barnier meant what he said, then talks would proceed as planned.

The presumption right now is that the talks will proceed as planned, but start on Tuesday, though reporters are still awaiting some kind of confirmation.