Rivian Routed, Small Caps Slammed As Bonds, Bitcoin, & Bullion Bounce

Nasdaq desperately clung to unch today as Small Caps led stocks lower with The Dow and then the S&P behind it (the ongoing value-to-growth rotation continued, kicking in at the cash open). A weak close didn’t help…

Today’s weakness in stonks appears to have sparked just a smidge of adjustment in STIRs from the ultra-hawkish bias. It was nothing to write home about but rate-hike expectations for 2022 slipped lower on the day (and March 2022 rate-hike odds are back at 16% – still dramatically different from The Fed’s expectations)…

Source: Bloomberg

Small Caps underperformance has erased all of its gains relative to Nasdaq on the month…

High-flying Cramer-fave RIVN was monkeyhammered down 18% today (along with Lucid), while TSLA managed gains…

Source: Bloomberg

Value hit hard relative to growth…

Source: Bloomberg

Interestingly, given the very recent steepening of the TSY curve, we would expect value to outperform momentum…it hasn’t…

Source: Bloomberg

This is how we explained it…

Cyclicals and Defensives were down about the same today (with Defensives staging a good come back after the initial puke today), but on the week cyclicals remain the slight leaders…

Source: Bloomberg

After a week of serious pain, Treasuries were bid today…

Source: Bloomberg

30Y yields fell back below 2.00%… again…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar slipped lower today…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin bounced off its 50DMA for the second day in a row…

Source: Bloomberg

Ethereum bounced back intraday (back above $4200) and if the following chart from Raoul Pal holds, the dip is to be bought…

Source: Bloomberg

Finding support at $60,000…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil was clubbed like a baby seal today… again… with WTI Crude futures breaking below the 50DMA and settled back below $80, its lowest close in 6 weeks…

Gold managed gains, rebounding to $1870 after yesterday’s beating…

US NatGas tumbled (as European gas surged)…

Finally, it could be worse – you could be holding Turkish Lira!!

Source: Bloomberg

If only the Turks were allowed to hold gold or bitcoin…

Source: Bloomberg