China Told Russia To Delay Ukraine Invasion Until After Olympics: US Officials

Senior Chinese officials “told” senior Russian officials in early February not to invade Ukraine before the end of the Winter Olympics in Beijing, according to the New York Times, citing senior Biden administration officials and a European official who spoke of a Western intelligence report on condition of anonymity.

According to the classified report, senior Chinese officials had some level of knowledge about Russia’s plans for Ukraine prior to the Olympics, at a time when Moscow and Beijing issued a joint 5,000-word statement declaring that their partnership had “no limits,” while denouncing NATO expansion, and vowing to establish a new global order with true “democracy.”

The intelligence on the exchange between the Chinese and Russian officials was classified. It was collected by a Western intelligence service and considered credible by officials reviewing it. Senior officials in the United States and allied governments passed it around as they discussed when Mr. Putin might attack Ukraine.

However, different intelligence services had varying interpretations, and it is not clear how widely the information was shared. -NYT

Also unknown is how high up the chain the alleged conversations went – and that “the material did not necessarily indicate the conversations about an invasion took place at the level of Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin.”

When asked whether it was true that Chinese knew of the invasion, Liu Pengyu, the Chinese Embassy spokesman in Washington, didn’t exactly deny it.

“These claims are speculation without any basis, and are intended to blame-shift and smear China,” she said.

The Times notes that Putin ordered more Russian troops to enter Russia-backed separatist territories in Ukraine the day after the Olympics ended following a state television broadcast of the Russian president’s lengthy ‘pre-invasion’ speech in which he said Ukraine should be part of Russia, and slammed the west for lying about NATO expansion since 1990.

Prior to the Olympics, Russia had moved military units from its border with China and other parts of the east to their border with Ukraine and Belarus in advance of the invasion. Then, on Feb. 24, Russia began invading Ukraine – which included the use of ballistic missiles, artillery shells and tanks on Ukrainian cities.

China and Russia have been growing close for several years – with Putin and Xi having met 37 times as national leaders ahead of the Olympics – and of course, that lengthy statement which marked the first time China had explicitly sided with Russia on NATO and European security. European leaders, meanwhile, have denounced both countries in recent weeks.

US officials implored China to intervene leading up to the Russian invasion, according to the report, but China simply went to Russia to let them know that America was ‘trying to sow discord’ and that they wouldn’t help.

For months, some American officials tried to recruit China in efforts to avert war in Ukraine.

Days after President Biden spoke to Mr. Xi in a video summit on Nov. 15, senior American officials decided to present intelligence on the Russian troop buildup around Ukraine to senior Chinese officials to try to get them to persuade Mr. Putin to stand down. The Americans spoke to Qin Gang, the Chinese ambassador in Washington, and to Wang Yi, the foreign minister, among others. In a half-dozen meetings, including one in Washington between U.S. officials and the Chinese ambassador just hours before the Russian invasion, Chinese officials expressed skepticism that Mr. Putin would invade Ukraine, American officials said.

After one diplomatic exchange in December, U.S. officials received intelligence showing Beijing had shared the information with Moscow, telling the Russians that the United States was trying to sow discord and that China would not try to impede Russian plans and actions, American officials said. -NYT

Around Feb. 10, US intelligence officials noted that Moscow was making final preparations for what appeared to be an attack – while intercepted communications revealed that senior Russian commanders were being assembled for a meeting believed by some Western governments to be a key decision point regarding the attack.

Now, China is trying to play peacemaker – with Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Weinbin saying at a news conference in Beijing that Russia and Ukraine should “seek a political solution that accommodates the legitimate security concerns of both sides. China will continue to play a constructive role in promoting the de-escalation of the situation in Ukraine.”