“WTF Was That!” – Stocks Explode Higher As US Economy Heads Into Recession

Following the first real signs of a US recession (with a shocking negative print for Q1 GDP)…

Source: Bloomberg

…dip-buyers got the all-clear as soon as Europe closed, the short-squeeze began with “Most Shorted” stocks soaring almost 6% off the lows…

Source: Bloomberg

The ammo for a massive squeeze is all there…(unless AAPL misses tonight)

S&P Skew shows Put vols heavily favored – the last time the put demand was this high relative to call demand, all hell broke loose in the second half of March…

Source: Bloomberg

Put volumes are even more extreme relative to call volumes than at the start of the last surge in late March…

Additionally, Delta positioning in options land is at record negative levels…

And Gamma tilt is at a key extreme (puts over calls)…

All of which adds up to – hold on to your hats boys and girls (and others) – as Nasdaq exploded 4% higher (helped by the Meta-Meltup)!!!

The S&P stalled at 4300…

And as Nasdaq goes, so goes Bitcoin… for now…

Source: Bloomberg

Today’s MegaLiftaton took all the majors back into the green for the week (only Small Caps remained red), but the late-day selling erased most of those gains…

And if anyone suggests that “well, a recessionary print for GDP is likely to mean The Fed will pull back a little from its hawkishly monstrous outlook” – they are wrong! The market actually shifted more hawkishly today!!!

Source: Bloomberg

The yuan continues to collapse…

Source: Bloomberg

As the dollar breaks out to 20-year-highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were mixed amid a terrible macro economic print and hope that Meta has turned a corner! 30Y yields were down 1bps as the short end (2Y) rose 5bps. NOTE that yields are all still lower on the week (despite stocks all being higher on the week now)…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices surged as Europe claimed a Russian oil embargo was imminent…

Gold rebounded on the day but was unable to get back above $1900…

Finally, the AAII Bull-to-Bear ratio has almost never been this low… adding to yet more conviction for the contrarians that a rip higher is coming…

Source: Bloomberg

But will it last beyond 5/4?

Source: Bloomberg