US Industrial Production Unexpectedly Tumbles In June

Despite ISM surveys tanking, analysts expected US Industrial Production to eke out a 0.1% gain in June but they were wrong as output slumped 0.2% MoM (and May was revised lower also). There hasn’t been a weaker month since September 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

Only mining (+1.7% in June after rising 1.2% in May) kept the headline industrial production print positive.

Utilities fell 1.4% in June after rising 1.9% in May.

Manufacturing output fell 0.5 percent in June, with decreases for durable and nondurable manufacturing of 0.3 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively. Within durable manufacturing, declines of more than 1 percent in primary metals, machinery, and motor vehicles and parts outweighed gains of more than 1 percent in miscellaneous manufacturing and in electrical equipment, appliances, and components. Within nondurable manufacturing, every group except for two posted a decline of at least 0.8 percent; apparel and leather recorded a gain of 2.5 percent, while chemicals registered a dip of 0.1 percent. The index for other manufacturing (publishing and logging) moved down 0.2 percent.

Manufacturing output slipped for the second straight month…

Source: Bloomberg

Capacity utilization fell to 80% from 80.3% in May, revised down from 80.8%

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, it seems that the market has caught back down to the economy once again…

Source: Bloomberg

Still think the economy can handle a 100bps hike?