Sunday Ballot Drops Cut Hobbs Lead Over Lake In Arizona Governor Race

Sunday’s batch of Arizona votes brought good news for Republican gubernatorial hopeful Kari Lake. 

When the numbers from various counties were all added up, Lake had trimmed Democrat Katie Hobbs’ lead by about 8,000 votes. With about 161,000 votes left to count, Hobbs is now up 26,011. In percentage terms, Hobbs leads 50.5% to 49.5% with 93% of the votes counted.  

About 58% of the remaining ballots are in Maricopa County. While Lake is gaining ground as Maricopa’s tallies increasingly represent votes from Republican-heavy Phoenix suburbs and exurbs, some observers say Sunday’s results make it less likely that Lake will snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. 

Lake won 54.6% of Sunday’s reported Maricopa votes, compared to 45.4% for Hobbs. “For [Monday’s] drop to be relevant, I was looking for at least a Lake 58/42 [split],” tweeted ABC15 political analyst Garrett Archer, a former elections analyst for the Arizona secretary of state.  

Lake’s hurdle for the remaining statewide ballots is high: She’ll need about 58.1% of them to pull off the buzzer-beater.  

No projections in AZGOV, but make no mistake: Lake didn’t get the tallies she wanted and probably needed out of Maricopa.
It will presumably close further, but Lake doesn’t have many batches left. Each time she falls short, her target in the outstanding vote gets higher.

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 14, 2022

After Sunday’s results were posted, the Hobbs campaign issued a statement that exuded confidence while stopping just short of declaring victory: 

“With the latest tabulation results from Maricopa, Pinal and Pima counties, Katie Hobbs is the unequivocal favorite to become the next Governor of Arizona. Katie has led since the first round of ballots were counted, and after tonight’s results, it’s clear that this won’t change.”  

Meanwhile, the battle for control of the U.S. House of Representatives continues its glacial crawl toward completion. On Sunday, Republicans picked up one seat, as the Associated Press called Oregon’s 5th Congressional District for Lori Chavez-DeRemer. 

According to the New York Times, the GOP has won 212 seats against 204 for the Democrats, putting the Republicans six seats away from the 218 needed to control the House. Of the 19 races that have yet to be called, Republicans are currently leading in 10.