UMich Sentiment Rebounds, Inflation-Expectations Tumble

After a hotter than expected PPI print, all eyes are on Fed Chair Powell’s favorite inflation sentiment gauge – the short-term inflation expectations (12-month) fell to 4.6%, the lowest since Sept 2021. The medium-term inflation expectation was flat at 3.0%…

Source: Bloomberg

Declines in short-run inflation expectations were visible across the distribution of age, income, education, as well as political party identification.

The headline UMich Sentiment index was expected to rise very modestly in preliminary December data after tumbling in November and it did, bouncing from 56.8 to 59.1 (better than the 57.0 expected) with both current conditions (60.2 vs 58.8 exp) and future expectations (58.4 vs 54.5 exp) improving sequentially…

Source: Bloomberg

All components of the index lifted, with one-year business conditions surging 14% and long-term business conditions increasing a more modest 6%.

Gains in the sentiment index were seen across multiple demographic groups, with particularly large increases for higher-income families and those with larger stock holdings, supported by recent rises in financial markets.

Sentiment for Democrats and Independents rose 12% and 7%, respectively, while for Republicans it fell 6%.

Source: Bloomberg

Throughout the survey, concerns over high prices – which remain high relative to just prior to this current inflationary episode – have eased modestly.