As Challengers Clear Debate Hurdles, Trump ‘Unlikely’ To Show Up

As two GOP presidential candidates clear qualifying hurdles for the party’s first debate next month, former President Donald Trump is “unlikely” to show up, says an advisor — but there’s a chance he will. 

“At the moment, President Trump has indicated that he’s unlikely to participate, at least in the first two debates. He’s up by 30, 40, and even new polling shows he’s up by almost 50 percent in certain places,” Trump advisor Jason Miller told The Hill. “It really wouldn’t make much sense for him to go and debate right now with a bunch of folks who are down at three, four and five percent. Even [Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis], who’s the second-place candidate in the race currently, is at least 20, 30 or 40 points behind.”

Of course, few people love a television audience as much as Trump, and Miller did hedge, saying, “Ultimately, President Trump will make a decision as we get closer. He has not said anything definitive, one way or the other. I’m not expecting him to participate, though.”

In an effort to lure Trump into the cage, DeSantis on Wednesday criticized the frontrunner’s debate disinterest. “Nobody is entitled to this nomination. You have got to earn the nomination,” he told radio host Howie Carr. “And … doing things like these debates — they’re important parts of the process.”

Former New Jersey governor Chris Christie was more pointed: 

Aww poor Donald Trump. He might have to defend his record on the debate stage?

If Donald Trump doesn’t show up, then he’s a coward. I’ll tell the truth directly to his face.

Chip in today: https://t.co/vSmNlyEk0s pic.twitter.com/ggPMZHUJPk

— Chris Christie (@GovChristie) July 11, 2023

To earn an invite to the August 23 Republican debate in Milwaukee — which will also be the site of the party’s 2024 national convention — candidates must check two boxes:

• Garner 1% support in either three national polls or two nationals plus one early-primary state, and
• Amass at least 40,000 donors across a minimum geographic distribution. 

The first such qualifying poll was released this week, and brought good news for seven candidates who hope to overtake frontrunner Trump. A national Morning Consult poll with an unusually large, 800-likely-voter sample found Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, Chris Christie and Asa Hutchinson all at 1% or higher. “Someone else” also hit 1%. 

North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, who has raised eyebrows by offering a $20 gift card to the first 50,000 people who donate $1 to his campaign, threw up a goose egg.  

On Wednesday, Chris Christie announced that he’d eclipsed the requisite 40,000 donors. “Last night, we went past 40,000 unique donors in just 35 days,” he told CNN’s Anderson Cooper. “There is a donor in every state in America, and we have over 200 donors in 36 states.” Among the GOP field, Christie is arguably the most aggressive of Trump’s detractors. 

South Carolina Senator Tim Scott, who tied Christie at 3% in the first qualifying poll, has also hit the donor mark. DeSantis was already near 40,000 donors back in May, and raised a hefty $20 million in just the first six weeks after announcing his run.

Aside from the poor risk/reward dynamic of exposing himself to fire when he’s up 33 points on the nearest challenger in the RealClear Politics average, there may be another disincentive for Trump to debate: The GOP also requires participants to pledge their support of the eventual nominee. Along with DeSantis, Trump has yet to say if he would do so.