Hurricane Ida Makes Landfall In Louisiana; Winds Stronger Than Katrina

(Update: 1305ET): Hurricane Ida has made landfall in Louisiana with stronger winds than Hurricane Katrina – which hit New Orleans exactly 16 years ago today, according to Bloomberg.

🌀 @NHC_Atlantic has declared landfall of Hurricane #Ida at 1155 am CDT as a Category 4 hurricane with max sustained winds of 150 mph and a minimum central pressure of 930mb over Port Fourchon. https://t.co/7iYQ3NXNtA

— NWS New Orleans (@NWSNewOrleans) August 29, 2021

Only two other storms on record have hit Louisiana with winds this powerful.

“I feel sick to my stomach watching,” National Hurricane Center forecaster Eric Blake tweeted on Sunday (via BBG). “This is a very sobering morning.“

“This will be the most severe test of that system,” said Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards in an appearance on CNN, adding “We believe that the integrity of that system is going to be able to withstand the storm surge.”

Earlier in the day, Ida was projected to drive ocean levels as high as 16 feet, with rainfall in excess of two feet.

Winds will be strong enough to rip roofs from houses, and snap trees and power poles. Blackouts could last weeks. About 33,000 homes and businesses were without power at 9:30 a.m. local time, according to Poweroutage.us, which tracks utility outages. -Bloomberg

Development of a double eyewall means that the core wind field of #Ida is broader, not a great development to see just before landfall. The storm has also begun to slow down, which was expected, but begins to reveal just how big a flooding threat Ida is. pic.twitter.com/HmluxMvr0r

— Dr. Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits) August 29, 2021

I haven’t done the calculations but I’m betting the amount of rainwater dumped on Louisiana by Hurricane Ida will exceed that of the entirety of California for the past year+

Heavy rainfall 10-20″ over large area, then 3-6″ all the way into New England during next several days pic.twitter.com/xzVQR3sIm6

— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) August 29, 2021

The live cams should get interesting over the next several hours:

asdf

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Hurricane Ida has rapidly strengthened into a major hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 150 MPH, just seven mph shy of a Category 5. The storm is set to strike Louisiana later this afternoon/evening, and on the same day, 16 years ago, Hurricane Katrina struck the area. 

As of 0600 ET, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) plane flew into the storm and found Ida is an “extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane about to make landfall in southeastern Louisiana later today.” 

Reports from an NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft data is 935 mb (27.61 in).

An elevated NOAA C-MAN station at Pilot’s Station East near Southwest Pass, Louisiana, recently reported a sustained wind of 82 mph (131 km/h) and a gust to 107 mph (172 km/h). Another NOAA elevated C-MAN station at Southwest Pass recently reported a sustained wind of 77 mph (124 km/h) and a wind gust of 93 mph (150 km/h).

Ida is currently over the Gulf of Mexico where it could strengthen even more before making landfall around 1800 ET. 

A Hurricane Warning has been posted for Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to Pearl River, Mississippi.

Storm surges could be significant across Louisiana and Mississippi. For instance, a 10-foot to 15-foot storm surge is forecasted from Morgan City, Louisiana, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi. A storm surge of 5-8 feet is possible for Lake Pontchartrain. 

The Weather Prediction Center warns Southeast Louisiana could expect up to 8-16 inches of rain.

Metropolitan New Orleans is expected to get swamped by the hurricane and has prompted residents to evacuate or shelter in place. Bloomberg says, “the levee gates will close in many areas, hospital wards in the region are being cleared out, oil refineries and offshore production are shutting down, and thousands of residents are fleeing for their lives.” 

An oil platform (KMDJ) in the path of #Ida was sending out weather information but it appears the reports stopped at 6:35AM CT. pic.twitter.com/ZTwt0v6YzW

— Doc V (@MJVentrice) August 29, 2021

The menacing hurricane “could damage close to 1 million homes along the U.S. Gulf Coast” and cause upwards of “$220 billion,” CoreLogic report said Saturday. 

The property and data analytics firm is worried that a dangerous storm surge could hit 941,392 properties in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.

Finally, as Mike Shedlock notes, oil production is going to face serious disruptions:

• Ida’s projected path has made it a threat to the vast oil refining and petrochemical complex situated along the U.S. Gulf Coast, though the storm’s more easterly track Friday suggested it would miss the heart of those operations in Texas and along the Texas-Louisiana border.

• Refineries in Louisiana and Mississippi had started to reduce or halt output, which will lead to some gasoline-delivery delays.

• Projections have Ida sweeping through the bulk of U.S. offshore oil production, located south and southeast of Louisiana, said Andy Lipow, president of Houston-based consulting firm Lipow Oil Associates. He expects as much as 90% of offshore oil output to close ahead of the storm.

• “Hurricane Ida is showing up probably in the worst possible location for oil production,” Mr. Lipow said.

Here’s a list, courtesy of Bloomberg, of all major oil and gas production sites shuttered and their capacity in barrels per day.

• BP Plc
  • Atlantis, 200,000 b/d
  • Mad Dog, 100,000 b/d
  • Na Kika, 130,000 b/d
  • Thunder Horse, 250,000 b/d
• Royal Dutch Shell Plc
  • Turritella (including Stones field) 50,000 boe/d (at peak), Stones field working to resume partial production
  • Mars, 60,000 boe/d
  • Olympus, 100,000 boe/d
  • Appomattox, 175,000 boe/d
  • Ursa, 150,000 boe/d
  • Auger, 130,000 boe/d
  • Enchilada/Salsa, capacity not specified
• Equinor SA
  • Titan, 2,000 boe/d (producing rate in the second quarter)
• BHP Group
  • Shenzi, 100,000 b/d and 50 mmcf/d gas
• Murphy Oil Corp.
  • Shutting in production, up to 4,100 boe/d
• Chevron Corp.
  • Shutting all oil and natural gas platforms; volume not specified
    • Average net daily production in 2018 was 186,000 barrels of crude, 105 million cubic feet of natural gas and 13,000 barrels of NGLs: website
• Exxon Mobil Corp. began evacuating personnel from its Hoover platform; minimal impact on production

Ports:

• Coast Guard sets condition Zulu for New Orleans
• LOOP paused deliveries until after storm

Refineries: 

• Phillips 66’s 255k b/d Alliance began idling units Friday
• PBF is reducing rates at 190k b/d Chalmette
• Shell began shutting 230k b/d Norco
• Marathon is shutting production at 578k b/d Garyville
• Valero is idling production units at 125k b/d Meraux
• ExxonMobil’s 520k b/d Baton Rouge is running at ~50% capacity ahead of Ida

Expect higher gas prices and energy outages especially in the impacted regions.

Here’s a live feed of the New Orleans skyline. 

As the storm makes landfall this afternoon/evening, we will provide updates as needed.