Iran Nuke Deal Might Be Effectively Dead Without US “Guarantee” Demanded By Tehran

Iran has recently said it will return to the nuclear negotiating table on Nov.29, however, there’s growing concern among world powers seeking a restoration of the 2015 JCPOA that talks could already be dead before they ever get restarted, given Tehran is now demanding a “guarantee” from Washington that it won’t back out of the 2015 deal again.

“We need verification, and this remains unresolved. It is one of the issues that remains not finalized. It is not enough for the ink to be put on the agreement,” Iranian chief negotiator, Ali Bagheri Kani, said at the end of this week. 

Bloomberg notes that “The request is a major logjam to progress as U.S. officials say they can’t bind successor governments. Talks are slated to recommence in Vienna Nov. 29 after a four-month break.” Very likely any future Republican administration would indeed reverse any near-future Biden deal that restores the deal. 

This is after Iran has already ramped up its uranium stockpile and enrichment purity, breaching the 2015 JCPOA deal’s caps. Tehran is now saying it will not begin a return to full compliance until this guarantee is delivered by the Biden administration. 

The Iranian chief negotiator’s words come days after Foreign Ministry Spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said of Washington: 

“They must lift the oppressive sanctions completely and effectively,” Khatibzadeh said, according to a report from Iran’s Mehr news agency. “They must guarantee that no administration in the United States mocks the world and international law” and again unilaterally pulls out of the agreement.

“Iran will explain its position about the JCPOA talks in detail in the forthcoming trips,” Khatibzadeh said of Bagheri’s European tour. “Iran will not stop its compensatory actions until it is confident that US sanctions will be lifted in an effective and verifiable manner with the necessary and objective guarantees.”

Given all this, and the likelihood that Washington won’t acquiesce, a number of Western pundits are asking: is the Iran deal already effectively dead without the US guarantee? 

Iran’s lack of trust in the US administration is understandable: “Given that Trump’s withdrawal from the JCPOA and reimposition of sanctions have crippled the Iranian economy—with high inflation and food prices afflicting the country—it makes sense that Iranian officials prefer to codify their return to the JCPOA under a legally binding treaty, rather than as a mere political commitment,” The National Review observes.

“In fact, trust is so low that some Iranian conservatives have demanded that the United States compensate Iran for the economic harm it suffered under Trump’s sanctions even while the Islamic Republic was complying with the deal,” the commentary underscores.