South African Scientist Warns “Nu” Might Not Be “Variant Of Concern” As WHO Calls Emergency Meeting

Update (1145ET): As European stocks wrap up their worst daily drop in more than a year, is it too late for US markets to see a major daily turnaround? We hope not…

Right now, it appears this is what they’re going with: while a breakthrough infection has been documented, there’s yet to be any proof that the variant causes “severe” breakthrough infections.

• S. AFRICA SAYS BREAKTHROUGH INFECTIONS SEEN WITH VARIANT
• S. AFRICA SAYS NO INDICATION THAT THOSE CASES ARE SEVERE

In the first sign of a  major turnaround, South African scientist Sanne has reportedly told the press that there’s every indication that vaccines will continue to protect against “Nu”, the COVID variant of the moment.

Here’s more:

South African Health Minister Joseph Phaahla reacts to new #COVID19 travel bans: “The reaction of countries to impose travel bans are completely against the norms and standards as guided by the World Health Organisation.” #B11529

— Laura López González (@LLopezGonzalez) November 26, 2021

Preliminary studies do suggest the #B11529 variant may be more transmissible, says South African Health Minister Joseph Phaahla. He emphasises that what scientists know about the #COVID19 variant is in its infancy. There is no evidence to suggest the variant makes you sicker.

— Laura López González (@LLopezGonzalez) November 26, 2021

South African Health Minister Joseph Phaahla: “All that we, did together with our scientists who made this discovery of the #B11529 variant, was to be in line with the norms and standards of the international community.”

— Laura López González (@LLopezGonzalez) November 26, 2021

South African Health Minister Joseph Phaahla: “South African scientists simply said that, just as has been the case with other mutations, some of them have been more transmissible without increasing the severity of the disease. This is early stages.” #COVID19 #B11529

— Laura López González (@LLopezGonzalez) November 26, 2021

Phaahla: “The same countries that are enacting this kind of knee jerk, draconian reaction [#COVID19 travel bans] are battling their own waves.” He adds that many European countries are seeing daily infection rates much higher than SA. “This is not scientific .” #B11529

— Laura López González (@LLopezGonzalez) November 26, 2021

South African Health Department Acting Director-General Nicholas Crisp says the first he heard of #COVID19 travel bans against the country was at 10pm last night when the British High Commission messaged to apologise for the travel ban. #B11529

— Laura López González (@LLopezGonzalez) November 26, 2021

Right to Care CEO Ian Sanne saying #COVID19 cases remain under 3,000 a day. “We have every indication that vaccines are still effective in preventing severe disease & complications. Data is however small and early. Identification of this variant was just last week.” #B11529

— Laura López González (@LLopezGonzalez) November 26, 2021

“We do think #B11529 is more transmissible and has already spread quite widely across South Africa. Laboratory tests are underway and will have more immunology work undertaken by next week.” – @righttocaresa CEO Ian Sanne #COVID19

— Laura López González (@LLopezGonzalez) November 26, 2021

Get ready for this short-term dip to get aggressively bought.

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Update (1000ET): In the latest sign that the word will be at defcon four over the “Nu” variant before dinner – or perhaps even before the US market’s early Friday close at 1300ET – an EU agency has just labeled “Nu” a “variant of concern”.

The decision has apparently prompted the WHO to call an emergency meeting Friday to consider whether or not to do the same. As we reported earlier, public health officials are sounding the alarm as a new strain of the coronavirus has been detected.

According to the latest reports, Hong Kong and the Netherlands have stepped up border restrictions. Hong Kong has barred non-residents from 8 different south African countries, from entering.

The new strain doesn’t have an official name yet, but scientists first confirmed the apparently fast-spreading variant in South Africa. They say it is highly contagious, and shows signs that it might be able to easily overpower vaccines.

The World Health Organization is calling a meeting Friday to determine if they will declare the new strain a ‘variant of concern’.

Even without the new strain, COVID cases have been on the rise for about a month, nearing an average of 100,000 per day, and experts worry it could be the start of a new wave.

The Dutch are already using “Nu” as a reason to tighten their lockdown restrictions on businesses. Starting Sunday, restaurants and other businesses will be subject to a 0500ET to 1700ET curfew. Schools will remain open, and the measures will be in place provisionally for 3 weeks, at least.

The CDC’s latest forecast predicts between 4,100 and 12,000 people will be hospitalized with COVID in the US by mid-December.

Wall Street sell-side analysts are going all-in on “Nu” fearmongering: One Citi analyst note says the “accumulation of variations” in Nu suggest that “our fears have been realized”. Then again, “concern over Nu” needs to be balanced with the failure of other variants to outmuscle delta as the world’s most prevalent variant. However, Europe has been struggling with a resurgence of cases, while the US follows a similar path.

Although, in the US, Dr. Anthony Fauci is already telling cable news networks that the US has no plans to restrict travel from South Africa. At least, not yet.

* * *

In what is becoming a nightmare for thousands of traders (and an even larger number of public health officials, we imagine), the latest COVID variant to elicit a hysterical response – the ironically named “nu” variant” – has just been confirmed in Belgium, the first European country to confirm cases of the new strain.

Two suspected cases of the new variant have been detected and confirmed in Belgium, according to local media reports. The strain was initially found in South Africa, Hong Kong, Botswana and Israel.

It’s early days, but according to some the variant has already elicited major surges in infections. Enough so that news about the variant and panic about a more chaotic outlook for interest rates and the broader global economy has sent S&P 500 futures tumbling, and the VIX surging, in premarket trading, on an otherwise quiet post-Thanksgiving Friday morning, a day where markets close at 1300ET.

And rate-hike odds are already tumbling.

Finally, these charts should help readers put this all into context…

…and…

The Nu variant, formerly referred to as B.1.1529, was initially identified five days ago, first in Botswana, with subsequent confirmation and sequencing in South Africa where 100 cases have been confirmed. The variant has also spread to Israel and Hong Kong, according to Citi analyst Andrew Baum.

Of course, all of this comes with a pretty big asterisk: The analyst believes concern over Nu needs to be balanced against the failure of other concerning variants such as Beta to out-compete delta.

Belgium also confirmed that the “nu” cases involved a traveler who had just arrived in the country from “abroad”. Already, Spain, the U, India and a handful of other nations have imposed new border restrictions, citing the new variant as the motive. Advisors in the UK have already declared the variant a serious threat (although they said the same thing about the last variant boogeyman, delta-plus).

One trader has some pretty interesting thoughts about where this is all going.