Nasdaq Collapses To Worst Month Since Lehman As Market Starts Pricing 75bps Hike In June

Remember how great the second half of march was!? Well that de-escalated quickly…

A 50bps hike is now a done-deal for next week’s FOMC meeting and STIRs are now pricing a near 50% chance of a 75bps hike in June (not helped by a record surge in the Employment Cost Index this morning)!!

Source: Bloomberg

That would be The Fed’s first 75bps hike since 1994!

And no, US equity markets are not “pricing in” that level of hawkishness… yet…

Source: Bloomberg

After starting the month with a panic-bid, Nasdaq ended April down almost 13%, its worst month since Oct 2008…

Source: Bloomberg

On the week, Small Caps were the worst (closely followed by Nasdaq) and that followed the puke last Friday…

And there was no signs of any rebalancing today as stocks were monkeyhammered lowered from just after the cash open (no thanks to AAPl and AMZN)and were utterly destroyed into the close… These were massive single-day moves

The S&P’s 3.6% puke is the worst day since June 2020 (as AMZN plunged 14% – its worst day since July 2006)

The Dow fell 1000 points today – erasing all of the second-half of March melt-up gains…

Overall, Nasdaq and Small Caps are now down over 22% from their highs, S&P down almost 13% and The Dow down just less than 10% from its record highs…

Source: Bloomberg

It appears ARKK is following the path of the rise and fall of 2000’s DotCom bust to the tick…

Source: Bloomberg

FANG stocks have lost over $1.6 trillion in market capitalization since their peak over $5 trillion in Nov 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

Staples were the only sector to end the month green with Tech and Discretionary puking over 10% and Financials almost as bad…

Source: Bloomberg

VIX reversed all the late-March compression, spiking up to 33

It wasn’t just stocks that were clubbed like a baby seal in April, Bonds were a bloodbath with 10Y Yields soaring a stunning 54bps…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve steepened on the month but we note that 3s10s dipped back into inversion today…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar index (DXY) exploded higher in April – up almost 5% against its fiat peers (its biggest monthly jump since Jan 2015) – trading at its highest in 20 years…

Source: Bloomberg

The Yuan saw its biggest monthly drop against the dollar since Jan 1994…

Source: Bloomberg

April was the Ruble’s best month on record (going back to 1993)… so not “rubble” then?

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos had a very rough month with Bitcoin & Ethereum down around 15% in April…

Source: Bloomberg

 

Gold was pretty much flat on the month while copper collapsed (along with silver). Oil was higher on the month, albeit amid a headline-driven roller-coaster of swings…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold ended April back above $1900… barely…

Retail gas prices were down on the month but have been rising for the last two weeks or so and look set to extend their gains, erasing any benefits from Biden’s SPR plan…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, it is worth noting that global bond and stock markets are down almost $25 trillion since the peak in Nov 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

And April was the worst month for a Bond/Stock portfolio since Feb 2009…

Source: Bloomberg

How much more pain will Powell allow the market to take?