Panic In Emerging Markets: South African Stocks On Track For Worst 3Q Since 2011

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Panic In Emerging Markets: South African Stocks On Track For Worst 3Q Since 2011

The world is on the cusp of an economic storm, and most global investors haven’t strapped on their rain boots nor deployed their umbrellas for what is coming in 2020. As we note in this piece, the most vulnerable fall first, all eyes on emerging markets for the next domino to drop. 

Bloomberg examines South African financial markets, where the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) is about to record the worst third quarter since 2011, an ominous sign that the global recovery this year is only a myth. 

Bloomberg notes property and construction sectors of the JSE were the weakest performing sectors, along with technology, telecommunications, retailers, agriculture, education, and financial services. 

South Africa barely avoided a recession in the second quarter, and economists are warning that unless the economy substantially expands in the quarter ahead, below-trend growth will return in 2020.

“South African needs a minimum of 2.5% growth consistently to cause the unemployment rate to fall and to stabilize public debt and at least structurally we’re some distance away from that milestone,” said Standard Bank chief economist Goolam Ballim. 

South Africa faces ever-worsening economic and social problems heading into 2020; a slew of factors are driving the country towards collapse: increasing government debt, disintegrating infrastructure, collapsing education standards, widespread crime and violence, currency volatility, and investment outflows.

JSE, weighed down by domestic issues of an imploding country, is also dealing with a global economic downturn that is heavily weighing on emerging markets. 

The South African rand is likely to break above the 15.2 level as the country’s socio-economic crisis continues to expand into 2020. 

Investors are dashing into South African credit default swaps to hedge their credit portfolios. 

And with the global economy faltering, it seems that South Africa, and most of emerging markets, will continue to deteriorate well into 2020.

Tyler Durden

Sat, 09/28/2019 – 08:45

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